Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan [photo credit: @RTErdogan]
A key agreement is on water management. Iraq’s two major rivers—the Tigris and Euphrates—originate in Türkiye which has constructed
a series of hydroelectric dams over the past half century that have
reduced water resources downstream. Ankara has also turned off the
faucet for political reasons, such as after Saddam Hussein invaded
Kuwait in 1990. Turkish dominance over water management of the two
rivers has contributed to Iraq’s climate insecurity, with the United
Nations designating the country as one of the five most affected by climate change.
But in the new water cooperation framework agreement, the two sides commit to fairly
allocate cross-border water usage and collaborate on projects to
enhance water management and irrigation. This should give Iraqis some
badly needed respite from higher temperatures and inject new techniques and investments into the country’s agribusiness.
In return for the water deal, Erdoğan has asked for Iraq’s support in
his efforts to remove the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK), which the
Turks have declared a terror organisation, from their mountainous
encampments in northern Iraq. Prior to the visit, the Iraqi National
Security Council banned the group. Türkiye has also asked for al-Sudani to stop sending money via Iraq’s Popular Mobilisation Units to to PKK-linked Sinjar Resistance Units that operate along Türkiye’s border. With Erdoğan calling for an imminent and ‘final’
military incursion against the PKK, Baghdad may choose to look the
other way and ignore the issue of sovereignty as the fighting plays out
on its soil.
As Iraq tries to move out of the shadow of its violent recent history
and towards stability, al-Sudani has advanced a state capitalism
strategy, one very much in the style of Erdoğan’s megaprojects.
This has culminated in the Development Road project, a hugely ambitious
transborder road and rail transportation network that will connect the Persian Gulf at Iraq’s planned al-Faw port with the Turkish Mediterranean. Amid other geopolitical rivalries, this would represent a paradigm shift
for Iraq with the potential to be a huge boon to development and
employment for a country in urgent need of both. With Iraq and Türkiye
working to resolve their tensions, the network would enhance the two
countries’ economic interdependence with one another. During the visit,
Erdoğan promised to invest in the project, which should boost al-Sudani’s credentials ahead of Iraqi elections next year.
Baghdad and Ankara support efforts
to enhance the federal government’s bid to centralise control reversing
the severe fragmentation that occurred in the post-Saddam period. The
Development Road currently bypasses areas under the Kurdistan Regional
Government (KRG), which may be an attempt
to weaken the autonomous Kurdish region. Along these lines, the Iraq-
Türkiye Pipeline has remained shut since March 2023, when Baghdad filed a
complaint against Türkiye at the International Chamber of Commerce in
order to block the KRG from exporting oil independent of the central
government. Erdoğan will support al-Sudani’s efforts to bring the
Kurdistan Region increasingly under his control. Still, following the
Baghdad visit, the Turkish president traveled
to Erbil to maintain the increasingly close ties with some Kurdish
leadership, particularly the Kurdistan Democratic Party, who have become
isolated due to pressure from Baghdad, intra-Kurdish fragmentation, and
the spectre of an American troop withdrawal.
And the Turkish-Iraqi redux is continuing to bear other fruit, as
part of renewed regional efforts to resolve local issues. In early June,
al-Sudani told
Turkish news that he has been working to secure reconciliation efforts
between Türkiye and Syria. Erdoğan had been highly critical of Syrian
President Bashar al-Assad in the past, funding armed opposition groups
and occupying parts of northern Syrian, but in 2022, he said
he no longer sought the removal of Assad. Although there has not been
any major breakthroughs since then, Al-Sudani’s efforts between Erdoğan
and Assad come after Iraq successfully convened a series of meetings between Saudi Arabia and Tehran in what led to a resumption in their diplomatic relations last year.
Regarding detente between Ankara and Assad, the Iraqi PM is hoping to
enhance his image as an honest regional broker. “God willing, we will
see some steps in this regard soon,” was how Sudani put it.
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